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Apostolos Bolkas

Model churn scenarios before revenue slips.

Stress-test your retention assumptions. Quantify how renewal, contraction, and expansion compound into meaningful revenue risk or upside.

System Objectives

  • Quantification of monthly and annual revenue impact of churn.
  • Strategic identification of net negative churn opportunities.
  • Verification of retention stability against growth targets.

Scenario Inputs

Adjust variables to model specific retention paths.

01.

Baseline Recurring Revenue

€

Annual Recurring Revenue entering the period.

mos

Period for run-rate and compounding models.

02.

Monthly Churn Metrics

%

% of customers renewing before upsell or expansion.

%

Additional revenue from existing customer growth.

%

Revenue lost from downgrades (not non-renewals).

Projected Outcome

Ending ARR
—
Net Retention
—
Impact
—

Revenue Waterfall

Renewed ARR —
Expansion —
Contraction —
Lost (Churn) —
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